Predictive models suggest that multi-drug resistant tuberculosis could increase in the next few decades.
Aditya Sharma, MD, from the CDC, and colleagues calibrated a compartmental model to data from drug resistance surveys and World Health Organization tuberculosis reports to forecast estimates of incident MDR and XDR tuberculosis in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa from 2000 to 2040.
The researchers found that the percentage of MDR tuberculosis among incident cases of tuberculosis was forecast to increase, reaching 12.4, 8.9, 32.5, and 5.7 percent in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa, respectively, in 2040. The percentage of XDR tuberculosis among incident MDR tuberculosis was also predicted to increase, reaching 8.9, 9.0, 9.0, and 8.5 percent in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa, respectively, in 2040.
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